When building scenarios, we take into account main driving forces and restrictions.
The main driving forces in poultry breeding are:
- Efficient production for different markets
- Animal health and welfare
- Use of land, feed and other resources
- Current and anticipated future demand for food safety and product quality
The main
restrictions are:
- Selection in large base populations will limit rate of inbreeding to about 0.5 % per generation
- Artificial insemination used mainly in pedigree reproduction; limited use at grand parent level - Sublines with different performance profile for specific markets (e.g. for cage vs. floor systems)
Based on these starting points,
extreme scenarios were designed for
poultry layer breeding and
poultry meat breeding in 2020:
Two Scenarios for Poultry Layer Breeding 2020| | 1. High technology | 2. High value |
| Breeding Industry | - Continued focus on economic efficienty of egg production
| - Major breeding Major breeding programs in North America; residual programs left in Europe to supply the EU with stock adapted to floor systems
|
| Reasons for the Situation | - Long-term goals of breeding programs are determined by current assessment of future demand
- New regulations (i.e. ban on conventional cages) will not require major change in current breeding plans
| - Urge to find new varieties which can cope with "alternative" production systems
- Promotion of "alternative" systems will contribute to increased demand for these products
|
| Breeding Goals | - Higher total egg mass/hen housed
- Lower ratio of kg feed: kg eggs (FCR)
- Shell quality
- Disease resistance
| - Eggs produced from "happy chickens"
- Strain crosses adapted to free range without beak trimming
- Lower incidence of feather pecking and cannibalism
|
| Breeding Methods | - Evaluation of all economically relevant traits in all lines
- Multiple trait animal model breeding value estimation
- Special male and female lines with superior nickability
| - Evaluation with emphasis on behaviour in larger groups
- Selection index with emphasis on liveability in floor systems
- Strain crosses with physical appeal (persistent feather cover)
|
Two Scenarios for Poultry Meat Breeding in 2020| | 1. Europe world market leader | 2. Europe NOT Market leader |
Breeding
Industry | - EU breeders dominate (50%+) of world market
| - EU breeders contribute <5% providing for nich market
- Meat either imported due to supermarkets' policies
|
Reasons for
the Situation | - Strong EU commercial industry
- Use of high technology, promotion
of origin of product, working closely
with welfare organisations and supermarkets - Use of new genetic techniques
| - Lack of profitability due to supermarkets' policies
- EU legislation on welfare and environment
- Banning of some genetic techniques
|
Breeding
Goals | - Growth rate, liveability, feed conversion rate, mobility
- Disease resistance
- Reduced tendency for cannibalism
| - Growth and traits which define the niche market
- Disease resistance
- Reduced tendency for cannibalism
|
| Breeding Methods | - Existing traditional methods with improved efficiency
- DNA marker assisted selection techniques
| - Traditional "hands on" methods
- DNA marker assisted selection techniques
|
