When building scenarios, we take into account main driving forces and restrictions.
The main driving forces in sheep and goat breeding are:
- Consumer demand for safe and lean animal products
- Dairies will demand a better cheese/milk ratio
- Use of drugs will be restricted
The main restrictions are:
- The rate of inbreeding should be kept at 1% per generation
- Limited use of hormones for oestrus synchronisation
- No use of growth hormones
- Limited use of laparoscopic techniques
- Increase rare breed populations by 10%
Based on these starting points, two following two extreme scenarios for sheep and goat breeding in 2020 were designed:
Two Scenarios for Sheep and Goats Breeding 2020
| | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 |
| Breeding Industry | - Mostly intensive production systems; number of flocks will increase
- Few large dairies will process milk production on high tech/low cost basis
- Organic farming limited
| - Small part intensive production systems; most farmers keep small flocks
- Organic farming and niche products dominate market
|
| Reasons for the Situation | - Big dairies are driving force and produce safe food at reasonable price
- Use of technology in flocks where production efficiency is driving force
- Price of products of known origin is limited factor for mass consumption
| - Labour is costly
- Consumers are willing to pay for quality products
- Consumers want to support environment protection
|
| Breeding Goals | - Ewe and goat with high production level at an acceptable level of product quality and sufficient health level
- Extreme scenario: all emphasis on production traits
- Realistic scenario: maximum change in production traits, while no change in non-production traits
| - Strong ewe and goat adapted to extensive production systems; capable to maintain milk production in a larger life span
- Extreme scenario: all emphasis on non-production traits
- Realistic scenario: maximum change in non-production traits, while no change in production traits
|
| Breeding Methods | - Recording of all traits through milk recording
- Progeny testing of rams in nucleus flocks
- Use of oestrus synchronisation and artificial insemination in commercial flocks
| - Recording of all traits through milk recording
- Progeny testing of rams in nucleus flocks
- Use of oestrus synchronisation and artificial insemination only in nucleus flocks
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